A U.S. intelligence report says hurdles remain to a final Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal, including uncertainty over the outcome of a constitutional referendum in Armenia.
Obstacles still stand in the way of signing a final peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, according to the annual report of U.S. intelligence services, as reported by RFE/RL.
The agency cites Azerbaijan’s demand to amend Armenia’s Constitution, noting that the approval of a constitutional referendum in Armenia is not guaranteed.
“President Ilham Aliyev continues to insist that Armenia must amend its Constitution to remove a reference which, he claims, implies that Nagorno-Karabakh is part of Armenia. This would require a constitutional referendum in Armenia, the approval of which is not guaranteed,” the U.S. intelligence service wrote.
At the same time, the annual report noted that the Peace Summit held at the White House in August under Washington’s auspices created an opportunity for Armenia and Azerbaijan to reach a lasting peace agreement and boost regional stability.
The intelligence service also stated that the U.S. side managed to achieve preliminary agreement on the provisions of a peace treaty, and that the TRIPP project was approved, which “will be managed by the United States and will connect Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave through a route passing southern Armenia, opening trade flows for both countries and the entire region.”
According to Washington’s assessment, these developments have become a significant turning point in Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. The report recalls that in 2020 and 2023, Azerbaijan regained Nagorno-Karabakh by military means “from the ethnic Armenian population supported by Yerevan.”
“Since August 8, both sides appear willing to maintain the positive momentum achieved at the summit. Violations of the border ceasefire have sharply decreased and are now almost nonexistent,” the U.S. intelligence service noted, adding that Azerbaijan has supplied gasoline to Armenia and allowed transit shipments of wheat, while Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has made a reciprocal proposal to President Aliyev.
Justice Minister Srbuhi Galyan said that the new Constitution text does not include a preamble, while the reference to the Declaration of Independence was in the preamble. She said this in response to journalists’ question on whether the new Constitution will include such a reference.
